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May 19, 2015

  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    That headline question is the focus of the May Economic and Housing Outlook produced by Freddie mac's Office of the Chief Economist. The economic team, headed by Leonard Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist, notes that housing stumbled in 2013 when rates rose by a full percentage point in May and June of that year. Sales slowed in response and are only now recovering to their levels before that event. Are we due for a...
  • 12:22pm

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Remember the "QE-on vs QE-off" trading in 2013? In an extremely overt way, stocks and bonds rallied and sold together based on constantly evolving prospects for Fed tapering. It occurred perfectly between the Fed meeting that introduced tapering possibilities and the Fed meeting that confirmed it. While it hasn't been on the same scale, we do see echoes of this same type of trading...
  • 10:41am

    Posted To: Pipeline Press

    There are 1,700 capital markets folks wandering around Manhattan, and one of the topics is that one week Janet Yellen and other Fed officials are warning of an overblown stock market and a couple weeks later we're still setting highs. Where else are people going to park their money? How 'bout housing? Pro Teck Valuation Services released its monthly Home Value Forecast examining...
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Residential construction numbers soared in April after a dismal March and both the number of residential permits issued and housing starts easily outpaced the expectations of analysts surveyed earlier by Reuters. The numbers were especially strong in the Northeast region as its unusually harsh winter ended. The construction data was provided in a joint release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department...
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    The Fed is yet to come this week and that could be the first good opportunity for bonds to decide on their next move from the past few days of consolidation. Actually, yesterday's closing levels were fairly close to those seen on May 6th (2.23-2.24), and bonds have traded roughly the same distance in either direction since then (2.11-2.36). So arguably, the consolidation has been going on for...

May 18, 2015

  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    After Thursday and Friday of last week mimicked the previous Thursday and Friday, it was fair to wonder if we'd get another ugly Monday today. While we did lose ground in terms of trading levels, the severity of the weakness reveals several clues about trader sentiment. Those clues point to an ongoing consolidation of the late-April / early-May sell-off. Let's talk quickly about this term...
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    "Everyone working in the mortgage business feels like there is a giant target on their backs ," David H. Stevens said in remarks prepared for delivery today at the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) National Secondary Market Conference and Expo. Stevens, MBA's President said the Department of Justice and other enforcement agencies appear to be in charge of the nation's housing policy and both consumers and...
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates moved higher out of the gate for a second straight week, though today's jump was smaller than last Monday's. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote remains 4.0% for top tier borrowers, with a few lenders still down at 3.875% and fewer still at 4.125% Last week we talked about how the similarities in the past two weeks served as a good reminder of the risks involved with...
  • 11:54am

    Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Last Monday saw an unpleasant reversal of 2 days of gains heading into the previous weekend. Now this Monday is going through some of the same motions. But as we discussed on Friday and earlier this morning, things are different this time around, and none of this morning's weakness refutes that so far. Here are a few things to keep in mind when considering that today is "less bad"...
  • 11:10am

    Posted To: MND NewsWire

    While they were discussing different vintages, home sellers have a slightly more upbeat outlook on home sales then do the builders of those homes. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors® told Association members late last week that he expects this will be the best year for existing home sales since 2006 but the index measuring builder confidence about new home sales dropped this...

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